Student churn muddies picture of real state of visa applications

AN optimistic analysis of student visa applications from the Department of Immigration and Citizenship has been dismissed by industry experts, who say the outlook is bleak and will continue so for some time to come.

Stephen Connelly, president of the International Education Association of Australia, said second semester commencement figures would be the true indicator of any upturn but there was no sign of that yet.

"Overall, my impression is semester two is still flat; we have not yet seen a kick from the improvement in visa assessment levels for India and China, so the situation is still bleak," Mr Connelly said.

In its quarterly report analysing visa applications and acceptances to the end of March, DIAC said 36,523 applications was the second highest March number in the past four years and that numbers were up 6.5 per cent from March 2010.

"March application data is nothing to celebrate when overall the figures look like they have gone backwards three or four years," Mr Connelly said.

But the report stated "student visa applications may be stabilising from the decrease experienced in 2009 and 2010".

The March increase was driven entirely by a seasonal rise in onshore applications, obscuring the ongoing heavy falls in offshore applications.

English Australia executive director Sue Blundell warned offshore numbers were the key measure of new students and that the falls were "alarming".

Offshore applications in March were down 20 per cent from a year ago at just 7571.

IEAA executive director Dennis Murray said the increase in onshore applications reflected a churn of existing students.

"With offshore applications well down, we are cannibalising onshore numbers, which all adds up to an unsustainable situation over the longer term," he said. "I can't see any improvement in sight, onshore or offshore, for some time ahead . . . especially given continuing ambiguous messages from the federal government about whether international students are valued and welcome in Australia," Mr Murray said.

Total student visas granted for the nine months to March were down 11 per cent from a year ago, with the granting of offshore visas plummeting 24 per cent.

The forward picture is similarly down with total visa applications for the nine months to March down almost 8 per cent, but with offshore applications down 25 per cent. The vocational sector has been hit hardest with nine month 2010-11 offshore visa applications tumbling 52 per cent to 15,575.

Offshore applications for the English-language sector were down 15 per cent to the end of March, while offshore applications were down by 22 per cent.

Source http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/student-churn-muddies-picture-of-real-state-of-visa-applications/story-e6frgcjx-1226062241189