The issue of population has been a contentious one as Australians have heard one leader extol the virtues of a "big Australia" (Kevin Rudd), while his successor, Julia Gillard, shrank from the term and added sustainability to the population minister's portfolio.
Now, that minister, Tony Burke, has released a report on population that is short and contains a glaring omission — meaningful discussion of immigration's role in population growth.
Burke has
argued that it is impossible to set population targets, given the variety of factors that can inform population growth. But demographers at the University of Queensland have recently argued that even if we do not set targets, we can, and should, project population ranges. They
project that our population in 2050 will be between 29 and 43 million and that there is a 50 per cent likelihood it will be more than 36 million.
Immigration is a big part of the picture here, and one of the few areas of population growth that government can seek to control. It is vital that we consider how immigration fits into the picture.
The report avoids discussion of immigration, most likely because of the political sensitivities around the issue. Just two of the 82 pages of Burke's report are dedicated to the subject. In doing so, it fails to address the importance of immigration, in particular temporary immigration, for population growth. Although it cannot predict the future, government can project, albeit within large margins of error, how much immigration contributes to overall population growth. Net overseas migration is the net gain or loss of population through immigration and emigration. In a report last year, the Productivity Commission said that in 2008/9, this contributed 65 per cent to population growth. Compare this to 1979-80 when it was just
30 per cent.
Some of this growth in net overseas migration related to Australians returning, but the vast majority was a result of increases in temporary migration, in particular increases in international students in recent years. Yet the title "temporary migration" is a bit of a misnomer – in recent years about one-third of international students have
changed over to permanent visas following completion of their studies.
Whether international students will continue to add to long-term population growth depends very much on the effectiveness of attempts by Immigration Minister Chris Bowen, to decouple tertiary education from immigration selection. The new
points test for skilled immigration, to be released in July 2012, emphasises extensive work experience and high levels of education, rather than defining preferred skills according to a
Migration Occupations in Demand List. This list, which was expanded by the Howard government, motivated some international students to enrol in courses that scored highly and contributed to oversupply into the permanent general skilled migration category. The new test appears to reduce this link and thereby, potentially, alleviate long-term pressures on population growth presented by international students.
Nonetheless, Bowen faces a number of new pressure points that could continue to contribute to population growth in the future. The first relates to those 40,000
students visa who applied under the old points test and whose applications for
permanent residency are pending.
Legal challenges by these students are being contemplated to expedite processing. If successful, these students would gain permanent residency to Australia and would enjoy rights of family reunification, as all permanent residents do, and should.
The second pressure point relates to the budget announcements for an increase in the number of temporary worker visas (457s) and new
Enterprise Migration Agreements for "mega resource projects" with capital expenditure of more than $2 million and with more than 1500 workers. It appears that these Enterprise Migration Agreements will be used to
bring in migrants, including semi-skilled migrants, who might not otherwise be eligible under 457 visas.
What do these changes mean for population growth? It is important to remember that any migrant who spends 12 out of 16 months in Australia is
counted towards the figures for net overseas migration, thereby contributing to the current population size in the short-term.
Even if international student immigration
declines in the long-term, will the immigration associated with the Mining Boom Mark II contribute to long-term permanent migration? Although this migration is temporary, there may be opportunities to move onto permanent visas. At present, about half of 457 visa holders
move on to permanent residency.
And while we do not yet know the details of the Enterprise Migration Agreements, we do know from experience with semi-skilled guest worker systems in other countries that real temporary migration is difficult to achieve. Given the opportunity to come to Australia, semi-skilled workers may wish to stay. They may search for other visas, or illegal means, to remain.
When the 2010 Intergenerational Report projected that Australia's population would rise to about 36 million by 2050, it was based upon projections of a net overseas migration rate of 180,000 per year. The budget papers make it clear that permanent immigration into Australia in 2011-2012 will be about
185,000. This figure does not include temporary migration from students or short-term business migration. These figures should have been included by Burke in his report.
While the government cannot predict the future, it can make projections, and open discussion about likely net overseas migration is an important part of this conversation. It should have been a central part of Burke's report.
